We underwrite 100+ public software companies on R&D return, GAAP profitability, and intrinsic value to own long-term compounders and avoid dilutive cash burners.
Underwriting notes published to support our investment decisions. New releases stay open for 7 days.
Anthropic's S-1/A shows a $16.96B quarter and positive operating cash, but it still bills per token and per seat, sends more than half of revenue back out as compute, and has signed $895.4B of compute and lease commitments.
Gemini 4 Argon went on sale after the quarter closed, so none of its revenue is in the filings. Owner cash is still negative $10.7B over twelve months, and Alphabet priced six billion euros of new bonds on Nov 2.
Shopify is winning the plumbing of agent shopping, with a 400 million shopper wallet, but agent orders still earn exactly the same economics as any other referral.
Twilio's third quarter fixed two of the things we were tracking: gross margin rose to 48.77% from 48.42%, and stock pay fell under 10% of revenue. The problem moved to the top line.
We allocate capital across public software companies on R&D return, GAAP net profit margin, and House Portfolio conviction, supported by quantitative quality ratings and fundamental research.
Screen our House Portfolio conviction tiers (Core, Watch, Avoid) and 0 to 100 quality scores weighted to R&D spend intensity, GAAP net margin, and R&D payback.
Every new fundamental note and featured company tear sheet stays open free for 7 days after publication before moving into the permanent Full Access archive.
Run interactive 3-statement and 5-year discounted cash flow scenarios burdened for stock-based compensation and equity dilution on any covered software company.
Full Access unlocks all software quality scores, House Portfolio conviction tiers, 5-year fair values, and the permanent research archive.
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